How much will it cost Anet to develop GW2?

That's what I have been wondering lately. Why? Because the cost for the development of GW2 determines how many boxes Anet will have to sell mininmally in order to break even. This thought was motivated by listening to the SW:TOR community. The difference: SW:TOR will have a subscription revenue stream. GW2 won't. There numbers around $ 300,000,000 were thrown around for the development of SW:TOR. 300 million!!!!
What do you think this will be for Anet?
I did a very simple-minded backhand calculation like this:
Size of Anet's develpment team: 200 for simplicity
Average income: $ 75,000
# of years in development: 5
Approximate Development costs: 75000*200*5 = $ 75,000,000
How many games does Anet then have to sell to break even?
Assume Sales Prize: $ 49.00
Assume Money back to Anet/NCSoft: $ 25.00
$ 75,000,000/$ 25 = 3,000,000
So using simplistic assumptions, it will cost Anet about $ 75 million to develop the game. To break even, using the above assumptions, Anet will have to sell 3 million games.
What do you think about the calculations? Do you think it's more or less?|||The ANet development team is nowhere near 200 (or at least it hasn't been for hte entire development)
The Box will probably be closer to $60 than $49
There will a cash shop already from the start.
On the other hand there are other costs, such as hardware, offices, admin, marketing etc.

Still, I think the cost is not as high as 75 million, and even if it was I think it would take less than 3 million boxes to recoup it.

That said, 3 million boxes *should* be a cakewalk for GW2, as long as they dont have to sell them all within, say the first 6 months.|||I would be surprised if the retail markup was only 50%. Anet's actual cut is probably closer to 10%.
This would be somewhat offset by people buying digital copies directly from the source. There's virtually no overhead in that case, so Anet gets the full amount.|||This also doesn't take into account CEs, or additional purchases from the in-game store. Nor the fact that expansions will take much less time to produce, but should sell well compared to the original game.
Plus, $75k as an average salary? I'm not in the gaming industry, but is that anywhere close to accurate?|||Quote:




That said, 3 million boxes *should* be a cakewalk for GW2, as long as they dont have to sell them all within, say the first 6 months.




This I think is the key part. I don't doubt that TOR would eventually reach the numbers to break even and profit. The question is, can they reach that sum in the one year time limit set by EA? I personally find that doubtful, but you never know.
In ANet's case though, as far as we know there is no time limit, so it's almost certain that ANet will eventually break even as Lensor says. The cost doesn't matter so much as the amount of time the company can take to start profiting.|||Pssh, I know how much I'm spending on GW2, and that's how much it costs for a CE.|||Quote:








Pssh, I know how much I'm spending on GW2, and that's how much it costs for a CE.




Ha! I don't know how much I'll be spending since I plan on getting the game (not sure if I'll get the CE or not), all the campaigns/expansions, character slots (if available and depending on how many we end up with normally), and maybe some other miscellaneous things.|||Quote:








Plus, $75k as an average salary? I'm not in the gaming industry, but is that anywhere close to accurate?




If so, I guess I should have stuck to my 3d modeller dreams..|||Yeah, 75k a year seems out of the way, but what do I know.|||Quote:








Yeah, 75k a year seems out of the way, but what do I know.




It was a guess. But all your concerns made me wonder as well. Here is a chart with typical job positions in a game designing company. The chart displays median incomes which means 50% of incomes are more and 50% are less. I guess I was thinking of software engineers, but of course there are many more types of job positions involved in creating the game. Interesting numbers....